The first quarter of this year, the yuan against the dollar did not appear before the market worried about the break "7", but showed a slight upward trend, unilateral depreciation is expected to ease; outlook in the second quarter, the cost of short renminbi will remain high, and the internal and external environment is also conducive to RMB exchange rate is basically stable, unless the Federal Reserve interest rate increase in June, the devaluation of the renminbi will not significantly increase the pressure.

Although the market still faces a variety of uncertainties, such as the Federal Reserve rate hike process, the US President Trump's stimulus policy enforcement efforts, the French election and the British off the European process, but the overall should be biased in favor of the dollar long direction, Stable economic performance, the two-way exchange rate of RMB exchange rate is expected to further consolidate.

New year at the beginning of a set of regulators boxing boxing, obviously raised the cost of shorting the renminbi. At the administrative level, the regulators are required to improve the authenticity of personal purchase of the review, and strengthen the bank's authenticity, compliance audit responsibility, from the source to curb the purchase of funds impulse.

Since the "8.11" exchange reform to the end of last year, the main source of capital outflows has shifted from the non-resident sector to the residents sector, so the effect of administrative measures will be more obvious. It is expected that such measures will continue until demand for market purchases has not been effectively released.

In addition to administrative measures, regulators are also actively driving market expectations through operations in the offshore financial markets. In the face of offshore yuan short-term forces, regulators at the end of last year continued to tighten offshore liquidity, to the beginning of this year to reach the peak, January 6 overnight HIBOR once soared to 61.333%, nearly a year high.

At the same time offshore CNH and onshore market prices continued to hang up, speculative funds purchased outside the knot operation can not be carried out, but also reduce the purchase pressure. In response to the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in March operations, the Chinese central bank also followed up a slight uplift financial market operating interest rates, reasonable to promote financial deleveraging, and to maintain the positive interest margin of the renminbi, easing capital outflow pressure.

This series of initiatives, obviously to resolve the devaluation of the RMB pressure, from the market tracking and data performance, the purchase of the exchange impulse is also gradually decline in the first quarter of this year, the RMB against the dollar spot volume decreased by three percent over the fourth quarter of last year.

This and the central bank foreign exchange decline in the performance of the obvious relaxation, the Federal Reserve in March after the rate hike, the follow-up market is expected to raise interest rates did not follow, and the dollar is relatively weak, expected in March foreign exchange decline is limited. The central bank foreign exchange is the central bank to acquire foreign exchange assets and the corresponding delivery of the national currency, if the central bank to the market to attract foreign exchange to recover the local currency will lead to reduced foreign exchange, February foreign exchange fell less than 60 billion yuan, less than last November Peak two percent decline.